BMO on Canada's economy

BMO on Canada's economy: 'There’s Alberta, then there’s everyone else',As Bank of Montreal puts it, there’s Alberta and then the ROC where the economy’s concerned.

Everyone knows that the province’s economy is on fire, and that’s its forecast to stay that way, but BMO economists today have fresh numbers to back up a research note titled “There’s Alberta, then there’s everyone else.” Looking deeper into last Friday’s jobs numbers, BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes says the Statistics Canada report “reinforced that the Alberta economy is in a league of its own.”

Employment in Alberta, home to Canada’s oil industry, has climbed 3.2 per cent over the course of a year, compared to just 0.1 per cent for the rest of Canada.

“That’s +71,200 jobs for Alberta and $14,300 for the rest of the country – note that Alberta accounts for just over 11 per cent of the country’s population,” Mr. Reitzes said. “Six of 10 provinces saw employment drop below year-ago levels, including all five east of Ontario,” he added. “Alberta’s energy sector continues to suck in workers, while the rest of Canada battles slowing domestic demand and the legacy of a strong loonie and weak productivity.”

Separately, as The Globe and Mail's Tara Perkins reports today, Calgary's housing market is red hot. So, as BMO's Sal Guatieri puts it, if you're looking for a new condo, good luck. The latest projections from Royal Bank of Canada call for economic expansion of 3.7 per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in 2015, with employment levels climbing 2.3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, and a jobless rate of 4.3 per cent and then just 4 per cent.